Today I’m sharing a short, yet highly trending article about vibe coding. Let’s consider whether software development has been fully democratized? Can anyone produce a piece of software, sell it, and make their life easier without significant expense? Or perhaps lay off employees and do it all themselves as a founder? We’ll observe interesting trends and try to more loosely assess the impact of vibe coding on the market and on us as programmers.
My previous article on the overall impact of AI on the IT market will provide a good backdrop for this post. VIbe Coding is a small part of this, with quite a significant impact. Be warned, the article is quite long, as the issue isn’t simple or easy to discuss.
Definition of Vibe Coding
The concept was introduced about a year ago, when people stopped writing code by hand. It appears to have been conceived by Andrej Karpathy, a neural networks specialist and owner of network-related companies and content creators. He was, among other positions, the Director of AI at Tesla. He is undoubtedly an authority in the industry.
The meaning of this concept actually focuses on 4 aspects:
- Natural-Language-Driven Development – instead of writing code by hand, the coder just gives commands to tools like Claude Code or Cursor.ai
- Changed workflow – from now on, vibe-coder is no longer a coder but more of a project manager
- Fast iterations – during one session we are able to close many tasks and quickly check the effects of our (and the agent’s) work in production
- High complexity beyond our sight – we no longer need to understand every class or method, we focus on the overall view, we do not need to know the implementation details of a given component or even the entire service
The main challenges of coding this way are debugging issues, production risks, security risks, and managing agent context and skills.
Levels (environments) for Vibe Coding
We see several sectors/levels of software development in the market, as described above. The first, most popular among non-technical users, involves using natural language software development applications such as Lovable, Replit , Base44 , and Bolt. All of these tools are typically used by people without coding skills. They market themselves as tools for “everyone.” There are some differences between them, but they essentially do the same thing: create applications, deploy, and debug based on prompts.
Another type of tool is an IDE, or console tool, which allows us to view and interact with code in an editor on our computer. These tools communicate with LLM providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, etc.) via APIs to exchange information and receive responses to commands entered in the chat window. These tools offer slightly more control over the code, allowing for agent organization, technical specifications, and so on. This tool is currently used by developers. According to a 2025 GitHub survey, only a quarter of developers use AI for vibe coding. Examples of such tools include Cursor.ai, Kiro, Windsurf, Kiro, Antigravity from Google, and a slightly different, more technical Claude Code console-based interface.
Today, we’ll focus primarily on the first type of vibe-coding mentioned, as it primarily expands the developer pool to include existing non-programmers. This is where hundreds of thousands of applications are created every day. I’m not mistaken – hundreds of thousands of users create and implement their software ideas there. Lovable is valued at $6.6 billion (Series B). I think $200 million in ARR fully reflects the number of paying users, considering that the Swedish company was founded just over two years ago.
Trends
Let’s look at Google search trends:
We’re seeing skyrocketing searches for local coding tools, along with a steady, gradual increase in interest in pure vibe-coding tools. This shows that society is gradually moving from casual programmers who don’t write code to full-blown programmers. In my opinion (which is impossible to measure), these may be different target groups. Vibe-coding is more for founders, managers, and individuals with ambitions to publish their ideas, while AI IDE and Claude Code are for those closer to the technology than the end product—software that works.
Now let’s take a look at the number of published (analyzed on X.com) and, most importantly, downloaded mobile applications in the last year based on the great website ittransition.com.
We’re limiting ourselves to the US here, but there’s a clear correlation between the boom in coding apps in general (early 2025) and the number of apps published. Now let’s take a look at the number of app downloads during that same period:
Consider the United States in the table above. We have 12.6 billion downloads in 2025. This represents a 2.3% decline from 2024. Consider that the US has a population of approximately 350 million, eliminating the 10-15% who don’t use mobile apps at all, and in a negative scenario, the 15% figure, leaving approximately 300 million active users. This translates to approximately 30-35 app downloads per user. Consider the following:
- people often have a new phone every year
- some people have 2 or more devices for work/life use
This amounts to between 20 and 30 apps per device downloaded from marketplaces. I have about 50 apps on my phone, most of which I don’t use; they’re installed as needed for infrequent purposes, like booking a hair appointment or shipping a package.
This raises one question: if I have 30 apps on my phone, why would I download another one? I think this is a question that customers of today’s vibe coders are asking themselves as well. There’s a clear disconnect between the number of apps published and the number of app downloads.
So maybe the problem isn’t the cost of building software anymore. Maybe the problem is…
why anyone would want another piece of software at all.
It’s worth noting that we’ve moved almost all our daily activities to our phones: from alarm clocks, payments, communication, childcare, cooking/catering, and even apps for monitoring and improving sleep quality. We wake up and fall asleep with our phones next to our heads or in our hands. So, I ask: what else can we cram into them?
This means that most of the money spent on app development (tokens aren’t free) goes towards producing a flop that doesn’t deliver value to the end user. Mobile apps have become incredibly easy to publish, and the publishing itself isn’t free, and developer subscriptions also cost money. This means that almost all of the capital “invested” in vibe-coding goes to model providers, with some remaining in the hands of apps like Lovable (assuming a 40-60% margin), and some flowing to corporations (Google and Apple for developer fees – vibe coder fees), and then further from model providers to:
- silicon and graphics card manufacturers
- server room owners
- energy producers
Assuming that desktop applications, video games, and web applications replicate this trend in the mobile world, capital flows are directed towards NASDAQ companies – technology companies and energy producers. Let’s see how this plays out in terms of valuations and market sentiment:
We’re seeing a divergence of -40% between the SaaS index and the top 100 companies listed on Nasdaq. It’s astonishing how successful giants like Alphabet, NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft are in this scenario (well, maybe less so after recent declines), and consequently, their investors. Who would have expected this? 😀 Apparently, SaaS companies are on the defensive, or the investor market simply underestimates their chances of AI production by existing SaaS customers.
Technical possibilities of Vibe Coding
Okay, we’ve discussed the definition and trends, but what about the actual capabilities of these tools? I’ve tested them a bit, and my personal feeling is that as a programmer, I would have written them better locally with tools from the second group. However, it’s undeniable that they can create quite an efficient application in terms of functionality. I’ll leave the design to your judgment; one thing is certain: you can easily spot the somewhat standard UX and color scheme of each tool, which is quite repetitive. However, this is probably a matter of additional styling prompts.
Scaling
What about scaling applications in the cloud? This is also possible; most applications offer not only coding but also testing, deployment, reporting, monitoring, and so on. It’s essentially a mini software house that writes and delivers software to a given website. Of course, scaling requires a fee, and here, once again, Cloud operators benefit twice: at the code development stage and at the software or application publishing stage. The market clearly directs money toward the big players.
Security
Since cybersecurity isn’t my area of expertise, I’ll be relying on other people’s opinions. I encourage you to watch the video below or similar ones:
The author highlights common security issues with Vibe Coding. This is worth noting. What I wanted to emphasize is that threats exist, and many Vibe COders could harm themselves by publishing blindly. Although the author’s material demonstrates coding in an IDE, it’s important to remember that underneath lies the same model used by the typical online tools mentioned earlier.
Code quality
Note that I’ve listed quality as the last technical aspect because, from a non-technical Vibe COder’s perspective, it’s of relatively minor importance. What matters is that the product is ready for publication and sale. The quality itself isn’t impressive, although it’s difficult to assess. In my experience, the code produced by comprehensive application builders is redundant, complex, difficult to read, and riddled with runtime errors. I’m waiting for a study on this, but I personally rate the level as Junior+. I’ll stop there.
Application development costs
You might ask, “How much does it cost, Mr. Manager?” It’s quite difficult to answer. Pricing for Vibe Coding tools is similar across the board, with a limited number of tokens available at $20/$30/$100 per month. Once you reach the limit, you have to wait or pay extra for overuse.
| App Type | Iterations | Loveable Cost (approx) | Freelancer Cost (approx) | Software House Cost (approx) |
|---|
| Landing + simple CRUD | 50–150 prompts | 0–50 USD | 500-2000 USD | 3000-10,000 USD |
| SaaS MVP | 200–600 prompts | 50–200 USD | 3000-12,000 USD | 20,000-70,000 USD |
| Production App | 800–2000 prompts | 200–700 USD | 12,000-40,000 USD | 70,000-20,0000 USD |
| Scaling, Complex Software | 3000+ prompts | 700–2000 USD | 40,000-150,000 USD | 200,000+ USD |
That’s just a simple estimate of the cost of software development. We should add maintenance costs to this. This includes hosting, scaling, monitoring, bug fixes (they always appear), domain, and communication with external APIs (e.g., LLMs). However, this will differ slightly from traditional software development. I developed the table based on my own experience, the LLM’s help, and various sources. It’s safe to say that this is an approximate cost in each case, highly dependent on the domain, specifications, the accuracy of the requirements, and so on.
We can clearly see that VIbe Coding is not only a lot of fun for developers, but also cheaper and less time-consuming – which is very important than traditional outsourcing of programming to companies or freelancers. In this process, we bypass the human element that had to spend time on concept, design, implementation, testing, and so on. Is this a good thing? I don’t know, but I suspect it’s very good news for founders. And so we move smoothly on to the next aspect, the psychological aspect.
Psychological aspect
Let us remember that for the last 50 years the manufacturing process has been similar:
- we employ a team or delegate it to an external company
- we get a quote
- negotiation/acceptance
- then we wait for the people in the basement to produce the code
- testing phase
- payment
- publish and/or sell
Previously, this process could take several years! Today, we see the same thing happen in a week or two, or even a single day!
This creates the illusion of being fast, cheap, bypassing human problems (laziness, dragging, illness, communication) and I do it all myself, exactly.
Iterative marketing, rapid dopamine shots in the head
I’m not a neuroscientist; I’m describing this from the perspective of a programmer with 10 years of experience. In programming, dopamine hits clearly play a significant role in productivity. You know that feeling when something starts working after hours spent working on a problem? Or when a sprint ends and you’ve completed a large chunk of code? Many people (including me) find these hits motivating and energizing. They make us want to finish a given stage of work, even despite exhaustion. The brain loves that feeling: Wow! It’s finally working. I can confidently say it’s addictive, just like social media or video games. Substance addictions are also based on similar mechanisms, but I would classify what I’m describing in a different category. The sources I’ve found call them behavioral addictions (source).
I have the impression that the speed of the tools only fuels this. You can go very far. While attending a meeting for Vibe Coders recently, I noticed that the speakers seemed to be in a trance, excited, like, “Oh, look how quickly this started working for me, how cool!” It was funny from the perspective of someone who understands how this mechanism works for programmers.
This is definitely fueling the hype surrounding Vibe Coding. I’ll touch on this further in my summary. For now, I’d also like to address the issue of the rampant drive and drive for training, webinars, courses, etc. by Vibe Coding gurus. Everyone, of course, has the right to sell whatever they want. However, this cannot be ignored in the context of FOMO, aggressive advertising, and their impact on our psyche.
Any non-technical person who sees this might feel like they’re missing out. If they don’t try and learn to code, they could miss out on a huge opportunity to get rich or launch a product. It’s a huge temptation, one that, as herd animals, we can’t easily avoid and shut out all communication.
Taking the above into account, I can confidently predict further increases in usage, greater market adoption, and a growing no-code or low-code market in the Vibe Coding format. One might ask, “Are we all programming junkies these days?” Ad voce the title question. However, I’m far from that conclusion at this point. It’s still a niche market, but it’s worth monitoring.
Summary and conclusions
Are we all programmers today?
Technically, perhaps. Practically, not yet. Business-wise, definitely not.
Vibe Coding is a real change. It’s not a passing fad like the successive JS frameworks that come and go. It’s a transformation in the way software is developed. Code is no longer the goal; it becomes a side effect of a conversation with a machine. That’s a huge difference.
On the one hand, we have complete democratization. A person without a technical background can now create a working app, publish it, and test it in the market in a week. This was previously nearly impossible without capital or a team. This is a huge opportunity.
On the other hand, the app market is saturated. Phones aren’t made of rubber. Users don’t have infinite attention spans. Most new products don’t solve a real problem; they simply replicate existing solutions. Production is growing faster than demand.
Capital also flows in a very specific direction. Tokens → models → cloud → silicon → energy. The winners are infrastructure providers. Not every vibe-coder.
Technically
You can build a lot. Sometimes a surprising amount. But debugging, security, scaling, and maintenance still require understanding the system. And here, a developer’s experience is still incredibly valuable.
Psychologically
This is the most fascinating aspect. Vibe Coding gives you quick dopamine hits. You create. You act. You publish. You iterate. It’s addictive. Hype breeds hype. And FOMO sells courses. Is that bad? No. Does it need to be understood? Absolutely.
In my opinion, the future belongs neither to “pure” vibe coders nor to programmers who ignore AI. The winners will be those who:
- understand the fundamentals of engineering,
- are able to think systematically,
- they use AI as an amplifier, not as a prosthesis,
- they understand business, not just code.
Programming isn’t going away. Its operational layer is changing. Less and less class writing, more and more decision-making. So perhaps the question isn’t, “Are we all programmers today?” But rather, “Are we all product builders today?” Because code has become cheaper. User attention hasn’t. And attention, as always, will be the ultimate currency.
Additionally, we need a strategy. Today, the question isn’t how many applications we’ll create, but whether it’s worth delving into a given problem and choosing from a long list of ideas those that actually solve market problems. Creating for the sake of creating isn’t likely to lead to a bright future.
I’m waiting for your comments! Thanks!
