This is the third and final installment in the series “Why Janek Doesn’t Program?”. After four years, we revisit the issue, examine what has changed over time, and examine the current situation of the titular Janek. We’ll try to present the situation of entry-level users and try to find good advice and guidance for them. I invite you to summarize the series and share your thoughts.

A quick recap of the previous two parts

In the first part we approached the topic:

A 2022 article examines why there are so few programmers in Poland (only 0.66% of the population, compared to 1.73% in Sweden and 1.21% in the US), despite the market then seeking around 100,000 specialists annually and the lure of excellent salaries. I debunk the myth that programming requires special talents – citing research showing that around 44% of people can create a mental model of simple programming instructions, even without prior experience.

The problem lies elsewhere: primarily in the fear of the unknown and the belief that programming is incredibly difficult, which blocks people even before their first attempt at learning. Added to this is the paradox of the job market – 80-90% of offers are for specialists, and only 10% for juniors, so even if someone is learning, it’s difficult for them to break into the industry. I announced that this is just the beginning of the analysis and that this topic will be continued.

In the second part, I lash out at Polish universities and demonstrate the absurdity of the system: every year, 35,000 students enter computer science, and only 13,000 graduate, meaning 60% drop out. But be warned – this isn’t because programming is difficult, but because students are drowning in algebra, physics, and other science subjects, of which there are plenty, and programming itself only accounts for 20-30% of their study time. Of the 25 subjects in the first two years, only 5-6 are actual programming.

I criticized the fact that lecturers are mostly theoreticians with no commercial experience, teaching on outdated hardware and software from before 2010. This is why bootcamps are ruining universities, because even though they’re shorter, their programs actually meet market needs. The only advantage of these programs is the internships, which actually help you enter the market. I conclude that the education system is completely out of step with IT, failing to prepare people for real jobs, and wasting potential programmers on unnecessary courses.

What has changed?

First and foremost, the situation for juniors has worsened. In my article from a week ago, where I analyze the current situation, a downward trend is clearly visible (only 5% of offers are directed at juniors), meaning there are twice as many junior offers – sick!

Programming schools have largely fallen into decline. The promise of entering IT is so distant that even touts and marketing magic can’t convince a warehouse worker that they’ll become a programmer in three months. A new trend has emerged: instead of promises of becoming a programmer, we have promises of becoming an AI DEV, which strongly captures the imagination of potential customers. Nevertheless, the reduction in the training market has been further exacerbated by AI. I’m linking to an article describing this phenomenon.

The labor market is now an employers’ market, so first of all:

• Junior has little say in the negotiation of the salary (as if it matters, since even getting an interview is bordering on a miracle)
• The employer no longer has to worry that the mid will escape because the competition will give him +20% to the salary – there is no pressure to raise it, we can also see this in the mentioned article.

It is not difficult to guess that these changes are rather negative for people who want to be in IT.

What hasn’t changed?

The way universities operate hasn’t changed much. Syllabi have been slightly adjusted to accommodate AI and ML, but generally speaking, higher education in Poland, especially public education, isn’t eager to pivot and change directions quickly. The problem lies with the faculty, which stalled 10 years ago. And the world is rushing forward inexorably. Even for me, someone who tracks trends and observes the market daily, it’s difficult to grasp certain aspects cognitively. It’s no wonder, then, that those unfamiliar with the market struggle to keep up.

Private universities are meeting these expectations, offering programs more aligned with market needs. The general situation on the Polish labor market (high minimum wage, decline in two-person households, rising living costs in job-providing centers) is a kind of impediment to private education. Few will take out loans for the illusion of a future job in the Eldorado that, from a courier’s or salesperson’s perspective, is IT. I personally believe that IT is one of the best markets for financial development. However, the entry barrier is so high that it requires difficult decisions and a great deal of determination to achieve success.

AI tools and the situation of juniors

A very hot topic, i.e. AI in IT, should be viewed from two angles:

1. AI/ML subdomain in the job market
2. AI support in everyday work (AI clients as I say)

AI/ML

When it comes to AI/ML, a significant number of companies are migrating their software solutions to those based on language models, machine learning in general, and data processing. This supports the natural evolution of companies to become AI-driven. This also happened at my current company. The entire software team was laid off, leaving a handful of people to replicate certain functionalities using the data platform and AI/ML. I personally stayed at the company, as described in the article.

Unfortunately, there’s no good news for juniors here. Their skillset and lack of experience make it impossible to start in AI/ML or even the data industry. They require solid experience and the ability to think in design and system terms, not just solve individual small problems. That’s why, for me, it’s easier for a programmer to change development directions than for someone who doesn’t exist in the market and has no experience.

AI Clients

The news here is encouraging. You no longer need to know everything to code well. Coding assistants like Codex, Claude Code, Antygravity, and finally Cursor (arguably the most affordable in terms of both price and usability) make it completely easier:

• Completing homework assignments in recruitment
• Learning the issues point by point
• Writing a portfolio on Github or other media
• Creating applications that are alive and allow for micro-founding
• Employer perspective: Junior + AI == Mid for a much lower rate (average -50% salary)

AI will empower the smart but weaken the stupid (sorry :()

I have a theory that AI makes the stupid stupid and helps the smart. Now you can make a 100% difference by investing less than 100% more. With AI, you can accelerate the learning process, shorten the learning curve, and deliver value to the business at a much lower rate. From a non-technical perspective, it doesn’t matter whether it’s a junior or mid-level; what matters is the result. Intelligent and clever people will be able to use this to their advantage.

The rest, however (I don’t want to name anyone here; I’m not here to judge others; I was young myself and I know that mindsets change over time; that’s the nature of youth) have a big problem. If you’re not using AI to increase your chances in the market, you’re making a huge mistake. It’s impossible to catch up with your competitors today without AI, because anyone with a better mind will do it. This also applies to people who want to change industries.

The answer to the title question in 2026

Let’s check the official data and compare the number of programmers with 2022. The latest reports show a significant increase from 250,000 to (numbers vary) approximately 300,000-350,000 professional programmers. These figures indicate a growth of approximately 30%. While these figures are imprecise, as IT is a broad term and programmers should typically account for 70% of jobs, this is a very rough estimate. Most data points to the broader IT market, not specifically programmers.
I obtained the data from several sources:

https://forsal.pl/praca/wynagrodzenia/artykuly/9527794,mamy-juz-w-polsce-ponad-400-tys-specjalistow-it-ale-prostsze-zadania.html
https://stormit.pl/raport-o-programistach-2025/
https://www.otoprzetargi.pl/news/w-polsce-brakuje-ok-50-tys-specjalistow-it-a-w-ue-ponad-270-tys

On average, the percentage of Poles coding has increased as we are currently going through a crisis and the number of our citizens is decreasing year by year. This increases the percentage. Therefore, we have approximately 0.8-0.9% of the total population. It appears that the progress of digitization and generational renewal in the labor market is bringing us closer to more advanced economies such as Germany and Sweden.

Janek is programming after all! But he’s having trouble with the work

As our baseline metrics have improved compared to 2022, we must deny the notion that Poles aren’t programming professionally. This has changed, the market is becoming increasingly saturated, and this is causing problems at the entry level. We won’t overcome this without a change in the mindset of employers.

In my opinion, we should value individuals and take a closer look at them, rather than filtering them out because they have less than X years of hands-on experience. This is a very difficult issue because assessing someone requires knowledge of people and a certain sensitivity, an instinct for detecting potential. Companies are willing to pay significant amounts of money to talent acquisition companies to bring in high-potential specialists. But when it comes to juniors, the market isn’t yet ripe for large-scale hiring.

Yeah, maybe that’s a business idea: creating a junior farm, giving them all the AI ​​tools available, and helping them apply for positions from junior to mid-level? I’ll have to think about it. Anyway.

What I’m trying to convey here is that, in my opinion, recruitment processes shouldn’t be based solely on experience, but also on individual predispositions to adapt and adapt to a given industry. The market isn’t ready for this yet, but I believe technological advances and the deteriorating macroeconomic conditions in Poland will force employers to seek solutions. And this is where juniors come in, all dressed up, who, for low wages (also due to the zero-tax relief for under-26s and the government’s threats to eliminate free B2B contracts – tax preferences), can achieve 90% of the results of someone earning 50% more for less. That’s how I see it; I don’t know if anyone agrees. Ultimately, everyone is entitled to their own perspective.

I’m curious how you assess the situation in the Polish IT market and what solutions you have for the problems facing both employees and employers. You already know my perspective. Thank you for reading this far!